Tonawanda Town, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

701
FXUS61 KBUF 060923
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
523 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms today, some of which
could produce brief torrential rainfall. Showers and thunderstorm
diminish in coverage tonight, with some fog developing in areas. An
isolated shower will still be possible across the North Country on
Saturday. Unsettle weather returns late Sunday and then lasts into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers will continue to be possible this morning. There will
also be some areas of fog reducing vsbys down to a 1/4 mile,
especially where we saw showers and thunderstorms.

Diurnal instability will once again increase today, and in concert
with increasing synoptic scale forcing from DPVA ahead of a more
well defined shortwave we will see another round of showers and
thunderstorms. The best coverage will be found a bit further east
and southeast and focused across the Southern Tier into the Finger
Lakes and Central NY, with lower coverage the further north and
northwest. Again...a few of the stronger storms may produce brief
torrential downpours, with possible localized flooding.

Shower and thunderstorms coverage will ever so slowly decrease
tonight, with improving weather as we head into the weekend. That
said...lingering low-level moisture will allow for some fog to
develop again overnight, especially across the S. Tier and Finger
Lakes region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday morning, a few showers will linger for areas east of Lake
Ontario as the cold front pushes east. As the front and sfc low
track east, better moisture and forcing will exit the area,
eventually pulling any remaining showers out of the forecast area.

High pressure will shift from the Central Great Lakes into southeast
Canada and northern New England Saturday through Sunday afternoon.
The southern edge of this area of high pressure will cross the
western & north central NY areas, providing mainly dry conditions
from late Saturday morning into early Sunday morning.

Showers return for Sunday morning, tracking into SW NY by around mid-
day and expanding northeast through the day. Guidance is still
uncertain as to the placement of sfc lows and frontal boundaries.
Some guidance brings a sfc low just to the west of WNY, while other
guidance brings the low right over the area with upstream
connections to a larger sfc low. Guidance does agree for the most
part that there will be showers across much of the area by late
Sunday afternoon, though some higher resolution models are slower
with the showers tracking into the region, such as the NAM and RGEM.
There will also be the potential for some thunderstorms, although
timing of showers will be important for the potential for
instability to support thunderstorms.

Temperatures for the weekend will remain mild with highs in the low
to upper 70s, which is near to a few degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers will continue on and off for much of the period. This will
occur as a large trough develops over the Great Lakes early in the
week and lingers into the middle of the week. An area of high
pressure will build across the Ohio Valley, potentially bringing a
brief break to the showers starting Thursday.

Temperatures for the period will remain mostly within a few degrees
of normal, either warmer or cooler, depending on the day and frontal
boundaries passing across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers will continue to be possible this morning. Given the
moist environment...fog/low stratus will `likely` impact
terminals at times with vsbys down to 1/4 mile, especially
across the S. Tier (KJHW) and Finger Lakes region through mid-
morning.

Diurnal heating will again bring the next round of showers and
thunderstorms by this afternoon. The best coverage will be found
across the S. Tier through the Finger Lakes to Central NY, with
lower chances north and northwest.

Tonight...with the loss of daytime heating showers and storms will
slowly diminish in coverage. Given lingering ample low-level
moisture, fog/stratus may once again become an issue across the S.
Tier into the Finger Lakes region.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR-IFR with an isolated shower possible in the morning,
then mainly VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers late.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action expected through Saturday night.
Easterly winds develop and increase on Sunday ahead of the next
system. This may produce a light to moderate chop on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario. Southwesterly flow returns Monday and picks up, which
may produce near small craft conditions at times on Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR