Tonawanda Town, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS61 KBUF 171802
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
202 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair and dry weather through tonight.
It`ll be much warmer Friday as a warm front moves through the
area, but this may produce a few showers. An approaching cold
front will bring steadier showers and possibly a thunderstorm
Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the region, bringing sunny skies
with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Fair weather
tonight, although clouds will increase from the west and
southerly winds will start to pick up late in the night.

A warm front will move across the area Friday, however the
strongest lift associated will be to our north. This may
produce a brief shower across Western NY from late morning
through mid-afternoon as it passes through but the vast
majority of the day will be rain-free. Model consensus shows
a better chance for showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario
region during the afternoon hours. With Western NY breaking into
the warm sector and with a southerly downslope flow, favor
warmer guidance with highs likely to top 70F at many locations
Friday.

The first half of Friday night will be mainly rain-free, but
showers will move in from the west ahead of an approaching cold
front. Ample elevated instability for a few widely scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will translate across
Ontario/Quebec from the Great Lakes Saturday through Saturday night,
sharpening and becoming increasingly closed off through the upper
levels as it reaches the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday morning. This
will drag a surface cold front through the forecast area from
northwest to southeast through the day Saturday. Deep southwest flow
will initially bring warm temps and breezy sfc winds while advecting
a steady stream of Gulf-based moisture into the region along and
ahead of this front. With the moderately forced environment in
place, this will result in numerous showers and potentially a few
widely scattered thunderstorms during the day Saturday. Overall
coverage and QPF amounts look to be greatest across the Southern
Tier and North Country. Cooler, drier air circulating around an area
of high pressure building across the upper Great Lakes will push
into the region immediately behind the front, resulting in a drying
trend through the afternoon and evening though showers may linger in
the Southern Tier into Saturday night.

Fair, seasonable weather then expected Sunday through much of Sunday
night. There remains a low (15-20%) chance of a few showers reaching
far western NY closer to Monday morning as the next system
approaches the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong high pressure ridging will slide east across New England and
into the Atlantic Monday as a broad low pressure system tracks from
the Upper Midwest to near the southern Ontario/Quebec border by
Tuesday morning. This will bring us the next round of widespread
showers centered on late Monday and Monday night. Still some
uncertainty in overall timing and coverage of showers as models show
differences in how vertically stacked the system is, and thus
discrepancies in its strength and track.

A cooler, dryer trend is expected late Monday night through Tuesday
night as high pressure builds back in from the west and the low
substantially weakens and slides across New England. The next area
of low pressure will then encroach on the forecast area from the
northwest sometime later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing warmer
temps and chances for rain, though model spread is considerably
higher at this range so PoPs remain close to deterministic NBM in 15-
25% range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunny skies with widespread VFR across all terminals for the
remainder of this afternoon. Ridge axis will shift eastward
across New England tonight but will still maintain VFR weather
even though some high clouds will move in from the west.

A warm front will pass by to our north on Friday, and this may
produce some light rain showers which may briefly lowers vsby
to 5-6SM. Otherwise, it`ll become windy during the day with
gusts 25 to 30 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR to MVFR with increasing chances of rain
showers and an isolated thunderstorm.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and a chance of a
thunderstorm.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters will produce light winds and
negligible waves through this evening. Southerly winds will pick
up Friday, but will direct the highest waves into Canadian
waters. Winds then shift to the southwest and increase Friday
night ahead of an approaching cold front. Small craft headlines
will likely be needed for some of the waters, at least with the
southwesterly flow and possibly with the southerly winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel