Tonawanda Town, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS61 KBUF 100539
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat will continue to build through early next week. Humidity levels
will remain moderate through Monday before a more humid airmass
arrives Tuesday. Dry weather will continue through Tuesday before a
weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night through Wednesday
with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains in place with a mid level ridge overhead.
Sunny and very warm weather today with highs 85 to 90, warmest for
the lake plains. Low humidity levels, so heat indices at or below
actual temperatures. Clear and calm conditions persist tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure anchored along the eastern seaboard will
continue a dry pattern into the start of this period. Slow increase
in warmth aloft...this on the back side of the surface high and
ahead of an Upper Great Lakes trough...will maintain or tack on a
degree or two to the afternoon surface temperatures for Tuesday.

Humidity will also begin to increase Tuesday as moisture pools ahead
of the upstream trough, such that dewpoints now in the low to mid
60s will bring heat index values solidly into the mid 90s for the
Lake Plain, Upper Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes region.
Tuesday is likely the day with the greatest coverage area of heat
index values meeting advisory thresholds.

The axis of PWAT values around 1.8 inches will cross our region
Tuesday night and Wednesday, with lift ahead of the upstream
trough...and daytime instability bringing much needed scattered
showers and thunderstorms to our region. The increase in moisture
will allow for a few of these storms to bring heavy downpours of
rain.

The cold front will cross our region Wednesday, and while dewpoints
will only nudge slightly downward, there will be a more noticeable
change to the temperatures with low to mid 80s replacing lower 90s
air temperature.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While slightly cooler air will filter across our region behind the
cold front Thursday and Friday, moisture will linger, especially
along our southern border...with perhaps a few spotty afternoon
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday.

Surface high pressure crossing southern Canada Thursday-Friday will
likely keep areas near Lake Ontario dry with a light northerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There may be some very limited river valley fog with local IFR
across the Southern Tier early this morning, but with less coverage
than normal for August given the dry airmass and dry soil conditions.

VFR expected at all terminals to round out the weekend.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms and associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain anchored along the east coast
through Monday, providing an extended period of light winds and
minimal wave action. A light southerly breeze each night and morning
will give way to onshore winds in the 7-10 knot range each
afternoon as local lake breeze circulations develop.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock