Tonawanda Town, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS61 KBUF 141803
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
203 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad weak low pressure over over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
this afternoon will gradually shift east before stalling along the
Delmarva Peninsula Thursday, resulting in occasional across the
region this afternoon through Thursday. A few scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon. An occluded front
will then lift northeast across the region early Friday, supporting
the continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure
associated with the occluded front will then reside across the Great
Lakes through the weekend supporting continued chances for showers.
While this all sounds pessimistic, should note that the rest of the
week and weekend will have periods of dry time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A now open negatively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley this
afternoon will drift slowly north across the Great Lakes and
southern New England through Thursday. Associated weak forcing and
moisture will continue to produce a few rounds of showers this
afternoon, lasting through Thursday.

Currently this afternoon, there lies an area of light rain showers
across the Finger Lakes region and into the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Across the west (west of Rochester), just cloudy skies
prevail due to an area of minimal forcing and mid-level moisture. As
the showers across the east slide east this afternoon, the dry
weather across the west will fill in across the remainder of the
forecast area. Dry weather will then last this evening and into the
overnight hours. However, due to a surface low over entering the Mid-
Atlantic region tonight, a few isolated showers are possible across
the western Southern Tier as the next area of moisture advects
northward.

The mid-level trough axis will lie overhead Thursday, sending a
plume of moisture and instability across the eastern Great Lakes.
The morning will start off mainly dry, with the exception of a few
showers to develop across the western Southern Tier. Diurnal
instability and low level forcing from lake breeze boundaries will
support an increase in shower activity Thursday afternoon. The best
coverage of showers will lie from the Southern Tier northeast across
the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes, and across the
southern Tug Hill region. Weak flow and poor lapse rates will keep
the severe risk to a minimum through Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next closed low to impact the region will meander out of the
northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday night. The
system will become vertically stacked as it begins to encroach on
the western Great Lakes Friday, then give way to secondary
cyclogenesis at the base of a secondary closed low over Hudson Bay
Friday night. The aggregate trough will then finally traverse the
eastern Great Lakes on Saturday.

In terms of sensible weather, this pattern should draw plenty of
Gulf-based moisture into the region and result in two distinct
opportunities for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.
The first will come late Thursday night into Friday as a robust
prefrontal trough moves in from the west. While diurnal timing of
this feature doesn`t lend a significant risk of surface based
convection, there will likely be enough elevated instability (up to
1500J/kg MUCAPE) and an uptick in bulk shear values (~30kts 0-6km)
to pose a lower-end risk of more robust thunderstorms as it moves
through. The second round of showers and thunderstorms will come
late Friday night into Saturday as the system`s strong cold front
similarly move in from the west. A bit more uncertainty with this
round of precip as elevated instability will be present though
again, diurnal timing does not appear overly favorable for strong
surface based convection.

Outside the chances for showers/thunderstorms, warm and muggy
weather is expected through at least Friday, though southwest flow
should keep temps several degrees lower around the Buffalo Metro
during the day. Slightly cooler but still quite warm for
most of Saturday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stacked low pressure system and broad surface wave will move east
of the region Saturday night. General troughing will linger across
the Northeast well into next week, with strong CAA around the system
causing temperatures to average near to below normal. Residual
moisture with these cooler temperatures aloft could allow for some
diurnal showers on Sunday, with occasional wrap around showers
possibly clipping the North Country at times. Otherwise, a stout
ridge building in from the Mississippi Valley will allow for mostly
dry weather late Saturday night through much of Tuesday. The next
closed low could then bring another round of showers in from the
west by Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An open mid-level trough will continue to gradually drift northward
into the Great Lakes tonight through Thursday, which is currently
supporting an area of rain across across the Finger Lakes eastward
(impacting the KART terminal at times) and ample amounts of cloud
cover region wide. Within the cloud cover a range of low end VFR and
high end MVFR CIGS grace the area this afternoon. CIGS will
gradually improve this afternoon and evening to VFR as an area of
weaker instability and limited moisture pivots across the region.

Tonight, lower end MVFR and spotty IFR will be more prevalent across
the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Rain showers activity will increase throughout the day Thursday,
with isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening
due to diurnal heating and lake breeze boundaries. As such, expect
brief/local restrictions dropping sites down to MVFR at times.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate easterlies on Lake Ontario will continue to produce choppy
conditions today through this evening, especially on the west half
of the lake, though winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Relatively light winds are expected Thursday and Thursday night.
Winds will become south/southwesterly Friday through Saturday and
increase, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Saturday
due to a cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Small Craft
Advisory conditions may continue through Sunday behind the cold
front with moderate westerlies.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock